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Lenexa, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Merriam KS
National Weather Service Forecast for: Merriam KS
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Updated: 11:43 pm CDT Apr 24, 2025
 
Overnight

Overnight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind around 6 mph becoming west.  Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms
Friday

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before noon.  Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. North wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Mostly Cloudy

Saturday

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 66. East northeast wind around 8 mph.
Partly Sunny

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1am and 4am, then a chance of showers after 4am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. East southeast wind around 8 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Mostly Cloudy
then Chance
Showers
Sunday

Sunday: Showers likely before 10am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 10am and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers
Likely
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Mostly Cloudy

Monday

Monday: A chance of showers after 1pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Partly Sunny
then Chance
Showers
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Showers
Likely
Lo 60 °F Hi 70 °F Lo 53 °F Hi 66 °F Lo 57 °F Hi 75 °F Lo 66 °F Hi 82 °F Lo 62 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Overnight
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind around 6 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. North wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Saturday
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 66. East northeast wind around 8 mph.
Saturday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1am and 4am, then a chance of showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. East southeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
 
Showers likely before 10am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 10am and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Monday
 
A chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Wednesday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.
Wednesday Night
 
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday
 
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Merriam KS.

Weather Forecast Discussion
783
FXUS63 KEAX 250527
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1227 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...Updated 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sporadic showers and storms today; potential for excessive
  rain tonight into early Friday morning could lead to minimal
  flooding mainly for western MO

- Lingering showers through the day tomorrow; dry conditions
  expected for this weekend

- A chance for strong to severe storms Monday into Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

The forecast continues to be characterized by an unsettled
upper and mid level pattern and several shortwaves sliding
across the area leading to additional scattered rain chances.
Today, morning activity has generally dwindled across the area,
but additional development can be expected this afternoon and
evening in the vicinity of the boundary draped across northern
Missouri. With warm moist air advecting into the region, expect
this to aid in storm development mainly after 6pm. Initially,
some stronger storms can`t be ruled out with isolated strong
winds and large hail possible. However, how long the severe
threat lingers is still in question with CAPE dwindling to
around 500 J/Kg and bulk shear of 20-30 knots tonight. What is
more certain is that storms may produce brief heavy rainfall
with precipitable water valued over an inch in northern MO.
While widespread flooding concerns look unlikely, an isolated
risk is possible, especially in area that have already seen
higher amounts in the last few days. Scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity may linger into early Friday morning.

On Friday, storm activity is expected to shift out of the forecast
area in the morning as the final wave pushes east, finally
bringing an end to the shortwave parade we have experienced this
past week. Weak mid level ridging will move in for the second
half of Friday into the start of the weekend. Surface high
pressure to the north will keep flow out of the north to
northeast aiding in mild late April temperatures mainly in the
60s.

Ridging amplifies over the area Sunday into Monday leading to the
return of temperatures in the 70s and even low 80s. Attention will
quickly turn to a more significant deepening trough moving off the
Rockies on Monday. As it lifts to the northeast through the area on
Monday, severe thunderstorm activity will once again be a concern.
The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined a 30% chance for
severe weather on Monday night across northwestern parts of our
forecast area into Nebraska and Iowa. Won`t dig into the specific
parameters this far out, but instability and shear look amply
sufficient for severe thunderstorms somewhere in the region. Right
now the biggest question is location with some differences in the
models at this time. Highest chances look to be across Iowa at this
point, however impacts across our area are certainly a strong
possibly, especially across northern MO. Stay tuned to the forecast
in the coming days as these details become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Isolated thunderstorms have been slowly moving across MCI and
MKC as the overnight hours start. This activity should push
eastward of these sites by 07z. Another area of showers is
pushing across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. High
resolution model guidance has not had a good handle on the
evolution of these showers. Based on trends as this moved
through Nebraska, thinking this will reach STJ and KC Metro
terminals between 09-10z, and could last for few a hours. After,
area of low-end MVFR to IFR ceilings moves in, and may be around
for few hours this morning. STJ will most likely be under IFR
conditions. Given increasing model probabilities and the
current track of IFR ceilings moving in from Nebraska, have
added a few hours of IFR ceilings to the KC metro terminals as
well. Improvement back to MVFR should occur after 18z this
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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